Badenoch's team privately discuss pact with Reform (2025)

When a leaked recording emerged this week of Robert Jenrick suggesting the Tories team up with Reform to win the next election, both sides were quick to shoot down the idea.

But despite the tough talk and solemn vows never to sign up to a pact that would unite the two right-wing parties, privately there is a creeping realisation that an agreement might be necessary at some level – with the Conservatives increasingly thinking what was once the unthinkable.

So much so that discussions on the possible need for an electoral pact are “actively” taking place among Kemi Badenoch‘s top team in the Leader of the Opposition’s office, sources say, as well as among leading Tories.

This is catergorically denied by Kemi Badenoch, however.

Reform is expected to make significant gains in the local elections next week, which is likely to force both Tory and Reform councillors in some areas to consider the political realities if they are to continue to deliver local services for their constituents, and power-sharing may well be on the agenda.

Door open to deals

Badenoch opened the door to local deals earlier this month, saying it was up to local councils to “make the choice about what is right for their councils” as long as they “stick to Conservative principles”.

And while Nigel Farage had previously ruled out forming coalitions with the Tories “at any level” insisting that his supporters would be “revolted” by the idea, on Thursday he said his party was willing to work with any party, including Labour and the Liberal Democrats, at a local level – but with strings attached.

“Our demands are that we bring the auditors in, we have a look at what long-term contracts have been signed,” he told a press conference in Dover.

“So if we have people who agree that it’s not the job of county councils to spend millions after millions on climate change, it’s not the job of county councils to spend huge amounts of money on DEI [diversity, equality and inclusion] … we would work with other people if we were able to achieve those objectives. That, I think, is what our voters would want and would demand of us.”

Such terms are unlikely to appeal to Labour, Lib Dem or Green councillors, but they could chime well with Tories in local government.

Reform is being tipped to win around 400-450 seats next Thursday and could pinch Runcorn from Labour, in what will be seen as a serious signal of intent by the right-wing party.

There remain some within the Conservatives who are actively opposed to doing any backroom deals with Farage amid concerns around the calibre of representatives in the party.

‘Plenty of iffy characters’

A Shadow Cabinet member said that while conversations on coalition deals “will have to be had…we’ve got to hold our nerve”.

“There are going to be plenty of iffy characters elected,” the Tory said, adding that the realities of having power could see Reform suffering. “They keep saying they’re going to sort everything out but they don’t have a plan for anything, and they won’t say how they’ll pay for it.”

The MP added that there was a risk as many of Reform’s candidates are unknowns that could make it difficult to put council cabinets together, adding there was a danger that “they might bring us down with them”.

But while such concerns are shared across the Tories, there is a sense that the political challenges facing the party means there may be little option but to hop into bed with Farage et al.

In the leaked recording that caused such a stir in Westminster this week, Jenrick can be heard spelling out that the “nightmare scenario” at the next election is one where Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour “sails in through the middle” as a result of the Tories and Reform “being disunited”.

He added: “One way or another, I’m determined to … bring this coalition together and make sure we unite as a nation as well”.

Sources close to the Shadow Cabinet member insisted that the comments were about “voters not parties” and that Jenrick wants to “put Reform out of business”.

Nevertheless it has brought talk of a Tory-Reform pact out into the open once again.

Idea of a pact takes hold in Tory HQ

Senior insiders within the Conservatives told The i Paper that the idea of doing a deal with Reform before the general election has firmly taken hold within the party and is being discussed all the way up to the leader’s office.

“[Shadow business minister] Greg Smith is a frontbencher and he has said there will need to be a deal before the general election,” one Tory source said. “Even Kemi herself has said there needs to be ways of working together at a local level and there are people in Loto [Leader of the Opposition’s office] who are actively talking about a general election pact.”

A Tory spokesman slapped down such suggestions, however. A Badenoch spokesman said: “These claims are categorically untrue, no one in the Leader’s team is talking about pacts with Reform and it is entirely false to suggest otherwise. As Kemi Badenoch has said repeatedly – including during her campaign to become leader of the party and since – she is working hard for every single Conservative vote and will absolutely not be making any pact with Reform.”

Tory grandees on the back benches are also warming to the idea, The i Paper understands, as they believe an alliance with Farage could be the only means of survival by the time the next general election comes around.

The likes of former cabinet minister Esther McVey and 1922 Committee stalwart Geoffrey Clifton-Brown have openly discussed the idea, but insiders say discussions about a pact has even spread to those closer to the more moderate wing of the party.

One Conservative veteran closer to the left of the party insisted it was “too early” in the electoral cycle for any talk of a deal, but admitted that it was up for discussion.

“There is a long way to go before the next general election and an awful lot of variables can change the landscape. That said, splitting the right-of-centre vote, which combined comes to a little more than half the electorate, results in the left being let in. The last election showed this with Labour reducing its vote by 550,000, but having a super majority. So Rob [Jenrick] is not wrong to say we need to think about this,” the MP said.

Any such pact would likely be informal and would see the two parties stand down candidates in seats where they are less likely to win, such as that agreed between Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019 and Farage’s then Brexit Party.

Both parties insisted there will be no deals, with a Reform spokesman stating: “The Tories failed the country for 14 years in office. We will never do a deal with them.

“The latest polling is clear, only Reform can beat Labour. A vote for the Conservatives is a wasted vote.”

How long that line will hold remains to be seen.